How to Save Lives and the Economy
How economically valuable is a face
mask mandate in terms of reducing the need for broad lockdowns with their
well-documented negative effects on GDP (Gross Domestic Product)? That was one of three questions that the
people at Goldman Sachs recently answered, using their analytical tools.[1] You can read the nitty gritty details of how
they conducted their analysis in their recent publication on the subject, but
here is the bottom line from Goldman Sachs:
“Thus, the upshot of our analysis is
that a national face mask mandate could potentially substitute for renewed
lockdowns that would otherwise subtract nearly 5% from the GDP.” How serious is a 5% drop in the GDP? That’s about how much the GDP fell in the
first quarter of 2020 – the worst quarterly decline since 2008, during a deep
recession. Our economy cannot sustain
continued declines such as this.
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“Our analysis suggests that the economic
benefit from a face mask mandate and increased face mask usage could be sizable,”
the Goldman Sachs report concludes. Whether
there were a national face mask mandate or, in the absence of that, local and
state governments would issue mandates on such a wide scale that it would “mimic
the impact of a national mandate,” the Goldman Sachs analysts say, “Either way,
our analysis suggests that the economy could benefit significantly from such
moves, especially when compared with the alternative of a return to broader
lockdowns.”
Two of our Sanibel city council
members – Mick Denham and Holly Smith -- have now voted twice for a mask
mandate; council member Richard Johnson joined them in voting for a mask
mandate on June 30. By taking this
action, these three council members have saved lives and helped to save the
area’s economy. They’ve shown leadership,
courage, and wisdom in taking this action.
Mayor Kevin Ruane and council member
Jason Maughan have not supported the Sanibel mask mandate (although the mayor
has said that he will abide by it). They
think that mask wearing should be voluntary.
The conservative Goldman Sachs numbers indicate that without a mask
mandate, COVID-19 cases grow by 17.3% per week; with a mask mandate, they grow
by only 7.3% per week. If a mask mandate
is combined with a ban on large public gatherings, the transmission rate can be
driven almost to the ground.
Punta Gorda’s city council voted unanimously
for a mask mandate. Other city councils
and county commissions in southwest Florida should follow Sanibel’s and Punta
Gorda’s example. Then maybe we would
have a shot at saving our local economy.
Let’s not throw away our shot.
Our economy cannot sustain renewed
lockdowns and loss of employee health, our hospitals cannot sustain the ongoing
surge in number of COVID-19 patients, and health care professionals are burning
out. Still, some selfishly claim that
they have a right to not wear a mask, and to be mandated to wear one is a
violation of the Constitution. The city
attorney refuted that argument on at the June 30 council meeting.
Dr. Anthony Fauci recently said, “I
don’t know how to explain to you that you should care for other people.” If
everyone would wear masks for several weeks, we could get this pandemic under
control. Do it for others. Do it for yourself. Do it for the economy. Do it for the world. Just wear the darn mask.
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